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VIDEO COMMENTS

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WORLDVIEW
30 October 2024

Bevan Graham

It’s a big 10 days ahead for the US.  The Federal Reserve meets next week and there is a plethora of critical data out before then to add fuel to the monetary policy debate.  And let’s not forget the election is the day before the Fed meeting starts, which will likely have them deliberating the implications of a new President – or perhaps a result that is still uncertain.

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WORLDVIEW
10 October 2024

Greg Fleming

September delivered positive returns from both equities and bonds, as investors responded positively to central bank easings.
Global Infrastructure and Real Estate were notably strong in the September Quarter. US Third Quarter earnings season could test the optimists.
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate -0.5% this week, to 4.75%.

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WORLDVIEW
18 September 2024

Greg Fleming

Equities which benefit from declining interest rates continue their recent positive performance. Additional gains will depend on the scope and scale of central bank interest rate cuts.

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WORLDVIEW
5 September 2024

Greg Fleming

Clear signals of imminent interest rate cuts in the US and an actual cut in NZ helped rate-sensitive assets to perform well in August. Real Estate and Infrastructure were particularly strong.

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WORLDVIEW
7 August 2024

Greg Fleming

August has begun with signs of an overdue correction in the major stock markets, particularly in Technology-themed shares. However, this has followed strong returns until the end of July, and Quality is finally being rewarded.

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WORLDVIEW
19 July 2024

Bevan Graham

Further progress was made in returning inflation to target in the June quarter.  We are still comfortable with our view of a first cut in the OCR in November.  An earlier move is possible but we will wait to see June quarter labour market data before we make that call.

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WORLDVIEW
4 July 2024

Bevan Graham

Things are increasingly falling into place for the RBNZ in its war against inflation. This supports market expectations the RBNZ will be able to start cutting interest rates well before the timing signalled in its latest set of projections.

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WORLDVIEW
14 June 2024

Greg Fleming

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and signalled a rate cut by year-end and four more in 2025.

Global equities anticipated a US soft landing success and rallied in May, as did the NZ dollar, whilst US May inflation improved.

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WORLDVIEW
23 May 2024

Bevan Graham

This week’s May Monetary Policy Statement from the RBNZ was more hawkish than expected.  An interest rate hike was considered and ultimately the first cut was pushed out three months to August next year.  The bottom line is my GDP and labour market forecasts are still significantly weaker than the RBNZ’s.  

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WORLDVIEW
3 May 2024

Bevan Graham

Latest NZ labour market confirms that monetary policy is doing the work it needs to do to get inflation back under control.

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WORLDVIEW
18 October 2024

Bevan Graham

Latest NZ inflation data supports the case for another 50bp cut in the Official Cash Rate next month.  Further cuts are likely into 2025 but at a more measured pace.

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WORLDVIEW
3 October 2024

Bevan Graham

It’s the proverbial line ball call whether the RBNZ cuts by 25 or 50 basis points at its Monetary Policy Review next week.  Path of least disappointment is to assume 25, but don’t be surprised if they do 50.  There is, in our view, a potentially stronger case for a 50bp cut at the November Monetary Policy Statement.

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WORLDVIEW
12 September 2024

Bevan Graham

The data runway leading into the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week has now been cleared with nothing that should have upset their plans to start cutting interest rates.  The bigger question for markets has been whether the 

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WORLDVIEW
15 August 2024

Bevan Graham

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made the right move in cutting interest rates this week.  Their forecasts are now much aligned with ours, including a steady stream of cuts to the OCR in the period ahead.

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WORLDVIEW
29 July 2024

Bevan Graham

There are three key central bank meetings this week.  Between them, we expect the full range of possible outcomes: a cut, a hike, and a hold.

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WORLDVIEW
10 July 2024

Greg Fleming

June saw equity gains in the US, led by technology, whilst Europe was buffeted by French election risk. NZ shares remained soft over the second quarter.

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WORLDVIEW
20 June 2024

Bevan Graham

The New Zealand economy managed to eek out a small amount of growth in the March quarter.  However, that doesn’t change our view of the economy essentially flatlining, a situation we don’t expect to change until next year.

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WORLDVIEW
7 June 2024

Bevan Graham

As was widely expected this week the European Central Bank took a first cautious step towards less restrictive monetary conditions.  Market attention now shifts to the US Federal Reserve meeting next week.

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WORLDVIEW
9 May 2024

Greg Fleming

Stronger-than-expected US corporate earnings, and a moderated market view of the risks to bond yields, has allowed an early-May rebound in the US market toward record highs.

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