VIDEO COMMENTS
WORLDVIEW
30 October 2024
Bevan Graham
It’s a big 10 days ahead for the US. The Federal Reserve meets next week and there is a plethora of critical data out before then to add fuel to the monetary policy debate. And let’s not forget the election is the day before the Fed meeting starts, which will likely have them deliberating the implications of a new President – or perhaps a result that is still uncertain.
WORLDVIEW
10 October 2024
Greg Fleming
September delivered positive returns from both equities and bonds, as investors responded positively to central bank easings.
Global Infrastructure and Real Estate were notably strong in the September Quarter. US Third Quarter earnings season could test the optimists.
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate -0.5% this week, to 4.75%.
WORLDVIEW
19 July 2024
Bevan Graham
Further progress was made in returning inflation to target in the June quarter. We are still comfortable with our view of a first cut in the OCR in November. An earlier move is possible but we will wait to see June quarter labour market data before we make that call.
WORLDVIEW
23 May 2024
Bevan Graham
This week’s May Monetary Policy Statement from the RBNZ was more hawkish than expected. An interest rate hike was considered and ultimately the first cut was pushed out three months to August next year. The bottom line is my GDP and labour market forecasts are still significantly weaker than the RBNZ’s.
WORLDVIEW
3 October 2024
Bevan Graham
It’s the proverbial line ball call whether the RBNZ cuts by 25 or 50 basis points at its Monetary Policy Review next week. Path of least disappointment is to assume 25, but don’t be surprised if they do 50. There is, in our view, a potentially stronger case for a 50bp cut at the November Monetary Policy Statement.