In our latest Salt Insights, we look at Kevin Warsh’s push for less forward guidance and a return to genuine market price discovery.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's intervention in the bond market last week was one of the more intriguing market developments of recent times. But in trying to push long-term bond yields lower, the US Treasury risks treating the symptom rather than the problem. 

Supply shocks, administered prices, energy costs and demand-driven inflation may all end up in the same CPI print, yet they have very different implications for monetary policy. 

We spend a lot of time debating KiwiSaver, NZ Super and the NZ Super Fund independently. But changing one inevitably changes the role of the other two. Perhaps it's time we stopped asking how to reform individual policies and started asking what we want NZ's retirement income system to achieve.

The ECB kicked off the latest round of central bank meetings with the expected hike last week.  This week see’s several other meetings.

New Zealand’s upcoming Budget is shaping up as far more than a pre-election fiscal update. 

The onset of the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to the recovery.  Growth will suffer on the back of higher fuel prices, while headline inflation will move sharply higher in the near-term.

New Zealand’s low potential growth and sticky non-tradable inflation still point to limits on how long policy can remain stimulatory, but the war has complicated the path.

​The Iran war is no longer just a geopolitical risk — direct strikes on energy infrastructure suggest a shift toward persistent supply disruption, not a temporary shock.

For much of the pre-pandemic decade, low and stable inflation, abundant capital and increasingly efficient global supply chains provided a powerful tailwind for financial assets.

The NZ economy was on an improving trajectory as we entered 2026, but that was interrupted by the war in Iran.  We think growth resumed into Q3 driven by strong commodity prices and stimulatory monetary conditions.

For decades, Australia has enjoyed a seemingly unassailable economic advantage over New Zealand. But are the forces that created that advantage becoming less powerful?

Markets are still pricing a likely 25bp hike in the OCR next week.  We're not convinced.  We've still got September pencilled in for a first hike, but even that is not a high conviction call.

This week's RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is shaping up as anything but ordinary. The war in Iran has injected a stagflationary shock into an economy that was still fragile, complicating the balance between weaker growth, high unemployment, and sticky inflation.  The direction for interest rates is up - the real question is when to start.

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair may prove less about near-term rate cuts and more about a broader shift in the Fed’s framework. 

New Zealand’s low potential growth and sticky non-tradable inflation still point to limits on how long policy can remain stimulatory, but the war has complicated the path.

New Zealand’s retirement income debate is too narrow.  We tend to talk about KiwiSaver, New Zealand Superannuation, and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund as separate conversations.  But they’re not.  They’re interdependent parts of a single system, embedded within the Crown’s broader balance sheet.  We need a more joined-up conversation."