We have been expecting a recovery to emerge in the second half of the year, primarily driven by lower interest rates feeding through into household disposable income.  Recent developments in the global trade environment challenge that assumption.  For now, we have trimmed our GDP forecasts on the basis of lower global growth.  The outlook is highly uncertain.

The uncertainty of US tariff policy is morphing into a hard, cold reality.  Weakness in the “soft” sentiment data will soon become weakness in the “hard” activity data.  On inflation, the Fed needs to be alert to the risk of renewed persistent inflation if consumers loss of purchasing power leads to higher wage demands in a tight labour market.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia are both expected to cut interest rates next week.  Both are at different stages of their easing journey, but both have reason for caution.

Events currently unfolding in France show how difficult it is for politicians to shift unsustainable fiscal settings back onto a sustainable trajectory.  At the same time, the ECB is warning of the possibility of another Euro zone debt crisis, akin to that in the early 2010’s.  They warn that complacency is not an option.  Bond investors should remain vigilant.

Annual CPI inflation is back in the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target band.  At 2.2% for the year to September 2024, this is the first time inflation has been in the band since March 2021. 

The New Zealand economy continues to struggle. While the economy managed to eke out a modest GDP increase in the March quarter, more recent partial data has been weaker. We expect to see contractions in activity in both the June and September quarters before stabilising.

Recent months’ furious rally in a small group of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-themed companies raises questions about how to preserve prudent diversification. Equity market index performance is ever-more influenced by a few Mega-Capitalization Technology enterprises. We consider what that means for portfolio construction choices.

This week we expect to see the first of the major central banks start to cut interest rates.  The European Central Bank gave a strong hint in April that a cut was imminent, and we expect they will follow through on Thursday.  

The most significant outcome of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting wasn’t the near-term monetary policy signals.  Rather, it was the seemingly innocuous blip higher in the Committee’s estimate of the long-term (neutral) interest rate.  Is this the start of a trend?  We think so.

As we head into the February Monetary Policy Statement this week, the economy is running below trend, pressures in the labour market are easing and key measures of core inflation are heading in the right direction. 

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Ongoing pass-through of higher interest rates, slowing employment growth, weaker business investment, and softer global growth all paint a picture of broad-based weakness in New Zealand economic activity in the period ahead. 

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Higher economic growth is critical for increased prosperity.  To be more precise, per capita GDP growth is more important than total GDP.  Turning the dial on per capita GDP growth requires a multifaced approach across innovation, education, global integration, and sustainable development that harnesses our strengths while addressing our vulnerabilities.  This note looks at the key areas government needs to focus on to achieve greater prosperity.  Progress towards a more prosperous future will be slow and incremental.  That means a well-articulated plan is essential to bring everyone along on the ride.

The impending September Monetary Policy Meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week had markets braced for a further tweak to policy settings.  In the end the statement was at the dovish end of expectations.  However, in the press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda declined to push back on market speculation, following his prior comments, that further normalisation of policy may not be too far away.  This note looks at the implications of that eventuality for markets and investors.

Markets are fretting about China again.  Activity indicators have been softer than expected recently but the good news is the policymakers are responding.  However, much of what ails China is structural, especially its huge appetite for debt.  There are options for addressing that, with the only real question being whether its orderly or disorderly.  At the same time, the authorities are leading China through an intended structural shift from exports and investment to common prosperity and self-sufficiency.  As we think about all these moving parts, we must remember to think about China in a different way to how we might think about a more free-market economy.  That leads us to the conclusion that the biggest risk, for China and investors, is a policy mistake.

The position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is an issue that pops up from time to time.  While the sheen has come off the Greenback in recent years, there is no real alternative.  Ultimately, it's all relative.  If the USD is to lose its influence as a reserve currency, something must rise in influence to take its place and we are a long way from that being the case.  Furthermore, such a change will be driven by structural forces that will take many decades to unfold.  We are not going to wake up to headlines one day that the era of US dollar dominance is over.

Relief at legislation passing through the US Congress to suspend the debt ceiling for two years belies the bigger issue of US long-term fiscal sustainability.  Indeed, many countries are now facing into increasing calls for new spending and/or tax relief while public debt is already on an unsustainable upward trajectory.  Even here in New Zealand, where our current debt position is more favourable than many, the challenges are just as great and will require our politicians to make some hard calls sooner rather than later.

Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th  unleashed dramatic global shifts. So far, the US economy and markets have borne the brunt of disruptions. The international response has been broadly hostile, and investors are reconsidering US holdings

New Zealand Term Deposit Rate cuts are in full swing for 2025. Diversified Income Funds can continue to beat bank deposits.

The New Zealand economy is likely in or close to a turning point.  We expect a modest recovery to build through 2025.

As we expanded our product offering in 2021, there were several structural themes we identified that our new funds would have to navigate over the next 20-30 years.

A first interest rate cut in this cycle by the US Federal Reserve on September 18th appears a done deal.  That leaves markets now contemplating how far and how fast the Fed will cut. 

There will be contrasting conversations at the August meetings of the RBNZ and the RBA.  One will be considering a cut, while the other will be considering a hike.

For many developed economies persistent fiscal deficits have become a structural problem and the pathway to fiscal sustainability is becoming increasingly challenging.  There are no easy choices, but a head in the sand approach will just make the problem bigger and more disruptive to solve when action becomes urgent.

The New Zealand economy is struggling, having now contracted in four of the last 5 quarters.  We expect two more negative quarters of GDP to come in the first half of this year, driven by weakness in the key interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy.   Growth will likely stabilise in the second half of the year.

We believe Japan is entering a new era of a virtuous cycle between wages and prices.  However, it will take some time for the BoJ to be entirely confident of this.   In the meantime, our impression from Governor Ueda's press conference is that the BoJ will remain very cautious in the setting of policy going forward. 

Ongoing pass-through of higher interest rates, slowing employment growth, weaker business investment, and softer global growth all paint a picture of broad-based weakness in New Zealand economic activity in the period ahead. 

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As part of the new coalition Government’s 100-day plan, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to return to a sole focus of maintaining price stability.  This is a welcome development.  While labour market outcomes will always be important for the Bank, they don’t have the tools to influence the complex interplay of factors, including fiscal policies, labour market dynamics, and broader structural issues that affect labour market outcomes.

One year ago, we released an Insight report entitled “The Bonds are Dead, Long Live the Bonds!” We cautioned investors against remaining bound to global bond benchmarks, given the risk of fiscal deterioration set against a still-elevated inflation picture. Since then, broad bond indices have weakened while more specialised fixed-income exposures have held up well despite higher yields

​The negatives for the New Zealand economy are continuing to build, meaning the weakest point in the cycle is still ahead of us.  The good news is that inflation is moderating, though domestic inflation pressures are proving stickier and more difficult to get under control.  We continue to believe the RBNZ has done enough tightening and now just needs to be patient, but we don’t expect interest rate cuts until this time next year.

The long end of the US yield curve is currently selling off at a time when conventional wisdom suggests it should be rallying, while the yield curve should be becoming more inverted.  So, what's going on? And what are the implications for investors?

Technological change is not a new thing, but it does seem to be coming at us faster and faster.  The latest technological change evolution is occurring in Artificial Intelligence as ChatGPT ushers in a new era of generative AI.  This note looks at the economic implications of AI, as well as the opportunities and risks for investors.”

• This is the first edition of what will be a regular quarterly publication focussed on the New Zealand economy.  Highlights this quarter:

• Downside factors still dominate the New Zealand growth outlook over 2023.  We expect annual growth to bottom out at -1.0% in the third quarter of this year.

• Net migration is surging higher.  This will lead to higher aggregate demand in the economy, but also help take the pressure off wages.

• The housing market appears to be stabilising in the middle of 2023.  Overall, we see a peak to trough decline of around 18%.

• The unemployment rate is expected to move higher over the next few months.  We see this peaking at 5%.

• Headline inflation is moving lower, though core measures remain sticky.

• The RBNZ has pushed pause on the rate hiking cycle.  We concur, but don’t expect interest rate cuts until the second half of next year.