REPORTS, COMMENTS AND INSIGHTS
24 MARCH 2022
Bevan Graham discusses the recent flattening of the US yield curve and looks at what similar periods in history suggest happens next, and when. While the warning signs shouldn’t be ignored, it’s too early to be worried about recession and too early to de-risk portfolios.
19 NOVEMBER 2021
The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow ended with what is best described as incremental progress on new net zero targets, and a request for countries to strengthen their 2030 targets by the end of 2022. Economist Bevan Graham discusses what this means for firms, the economy and portfolios.
4 OCTOBER 2021
Salt Economist Bevan Graham argues that in months and years to come, as we look back at the history of the upcoming interest rate hiking cycle, we will likely reflect that the September 2021 meeting of the FOMC was the pivotal moment. Bond yields are now in the next phase of their upward trajectory as the FOMC has become more realistic about the inflation outlook.
12 JULY 2021
Salt's latest views on the global economy, global markets and the New Zealand equity market from Bevan Graham, Greg Fleming and Matt Goodson
After a tumultuous 18-months, deployment of the various vaccines around the world is allowing Covid-related social and economic restrictions to be gradually eased. Global growth is picking up pace, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal support.
17 March 2021
China Rebounding Strongly
Salt Economist Bevan Graham takes a look at some of the recent activity data out of China. The Chinese economy is recording spectacular growth rates off the low base of last year. That said, challenges remain as the leaderships seeks to reorient the economy towards greater consumption to create a more prosperous society.
GLOBAL EQUITY OBSERVER
Effective engagement needs time. Expecting instant results from an engagement is as senseless as expecting instant alpha. Just as we look for steady and consistent growth in the companies we own, we value steady and consistent improvement in their approach to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues over zigzagging in policy to satisfy short-term appetites and box-ticking.
1 APRIL 2022
Bevan Graham discusses latest New Zealand confidence indicators and muses on the extent to which the current weakness is due to temporary or longer lasting factors. At the same time, inflation indicators continued to march higher, reinforcing our view that there is simply no justification for stimulatory monetary conditions right now.
Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming
A constructive view on 2022 is built on the assumption of progressively fewer and less-paralyzing Covid disruptions to activity, allowing the global economy to continue to expand, supply congestions to ease, and for a more balanced growth environment to evolve. Over time, this should eventually dilute the inflation problem that is now challenging consumers and assets alike.
20 SEPTEMBER 2021
This Salt Insights paper looks at China’s recent regulatory interventions, putting them in the context of the country’s economic development history and its current economic challenges. We also discuss the risks including our greatest concern that these regulatory interventions, while possibly well-intentioned at achieving common prosperity, may do more damage to aggregate prosperity.
7 May 2021
Global growth revised up, risks evenly balanced
The global growth outlook continues to improve as COVID vaccines roll out and economies continue to return to some degree of normal. There are risks on the horizon but in the near-term they appear evenly balanced. The more medium-term risk centers on the inflation outlook and the extent to which higher inflation in the next few months is transitory, as central banks expect, or something more fundamental. We are keeping an open mind. For now, the "bull" narrative for equities remains intact, though we remain wary of further increase in bond yields.