GLOBAL OUTLOOK
APRIL 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

The April edition of Salt’s Global Outlook reinforces our 2022 view of lower growth, higher inflation and more aggressive action from central banks.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinforced those trends.

INSIGHT
24 MARCH 2022

Bevan Graham

Bevan Graham discusses the recent flattening of the US yield curve and looks at what similar periods in history suggest happens next, and when.  While the warning signs shouldn’t be ignored,  it’s too early to be worried about recession and too early to de-risk portfolios.

INSIGHT
22 FEBRUARY 2022

Bevan Graham

Central bank credibility has taken a bit of a knock as the transitory inflation narrative has been proven wrong.

INSIGHT
19 NOVEMBER 2021

Bevan Graham

The 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow ended with what is best described as incremental progress on new net zero targets, and a request for countries to strengthen their 2030 targets by the end of 2022. Economist Bevan Graham discusses what this means for firms, the economy and portfolios.

INSIGHT
4 OCTOBER 2021

Bevan Graham

Salt Economist Bevan Graham argues that in months and years to come, as we look back at the history of the upcoming interest rate hiking cycle, we will likely reflect that the September 2021 meeting of the FOMC was the pivotal moment.  Bond yields are now in the next phase of their upward trajectory as the FOMC has become more realistic about the inflation outlook.

INSIGHT
22 SEPTEMBER 2021

Bevan Graham

US fiscal debates are always fraught and have real consequences – in 2011 the debt ceiling impasse led to a US sovereign credit rating downgrade.  In this Salt Insights, Economist Bevan Graham looks at the current fiscal standoff.

INSIGHT
27 AUGUST 2021

Bevan Graham

Bevan Graham muses on the latest Covid lockdown, the economic outlook and what it means for the RBNZ.

INSIGHT
17 AUGUST 2021

Bevan Graham

Inflation and its structural forces: The big debate of 2021 has been the extent to which recently higher inflation would prove transitory or whether we were in for a period of more sustained inflation requiring a monetary policy response. 

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
12 JULY 2021

Salt's latest views on the global economy, global markets and the New Zealand equity market from Bevan Graham, Greg Fleming and Matt Goodson

After a tumultuous 18-months, deployment of the various vaccines around the world is allowing Covid-related social and economic restrictions to be gradually eased.  Global growth is picking up pace, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal support.

INSIGHTS
4 JUNE 2021

Greg Fleming

Income Investment Funds: Taking up the strain? 

Income is a problem in New Zealand, and not just in the sense of investment income.

INSIGHT

17 March 2021

China Rebounding Strongly

Salt Economist Bevan Graham takes a look at some of the recent activity data out of China.  The Chinese economy is recording spectacular growth rates off the low base of last year.  That said, challenges remain as the leaderships seeks to reorient the economy towards greater consumption to create a more prosperous society.

GLOBAL EQUITY OBSERVER

Insta-engagement

Effective engagement needs time. Expecting instant results from an engagement is as senseless as expecting instant alpha. Just as we look for steady and consistent growth in the companies we own, we value steady and consistent improvement in their approach to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues over zigzagging in policy to satisfy short-term appetites and box-ticking. 

INSIGHT
1 APRIL 2022

Bevan Graham

Bevan Graham discusses latest New Zealand confidence indicators and muses on the extent to which the current weakness is due to temporary or longer lasting factors.  At the same time, inflation indicators continued to march higher, reinforcing our view that there is simply no justification for stimulatory monetary conditions right now.

INSIGHT
15 MARCH 2022

Bevan Graham

The war in Ukraine will have still uncertain but ultimately far-reaching implications for trade, growth and inflation, well beyond the immediate impact on commodity prices.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

A constructive view on 2022 is built on the assumption of progressively fewer and less-paralyzing Covid disruptions to activity, allowing the global economy to continue to expand, supply congestions to ease, and for a more balanced growth environment to evolve. Over time, this should eventually dilute the inflation problem that is now challenging consumers and assets alike.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2021

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

Global growth slowing, but above trend.
Economic growth continues to recover strongly, aided by the deployment of vaccines, the accompanying easing of social and economic restrictions, and strong and ongoing policy support.
 

INSIGHT
30 SEPTEMBER 2021

Greg Fleming

New Zealand investors often believe that Listed Real Estate is an asset class they know fairly well. Our domestic capital markets’ history is dotted with property securities of various breeds and formats.

INSIGHT
20 SEPTEMBER 2021

Bevan Graham

This Salt Insights paper looks at China’s recent regulatory interventions, putting them in the context of the country’s economic development history and its current economic challenges.  We also discuss the risks including our greatest concern that these regulatory interventions, while possibly well-intentioned at achieving common prosperity, may do more damage to aggregate prosperity.

INSIGHT
20 AUGUST 2021

Greg Fleming

The Appeal of the Real: is Listed Infrastructure an inflation vaccine? 

Confronted with unexpected and potentially persistent inflation for the first time in years, investors are being advised to diversify into real assets.

INSIGHT
9 AUGUST 2021

Bevan Graham

Geo-Political Risks: what to watch and the importance of active management.

As we look to the future and try to determine the outlook for economies and markets, we keep a keen eye on political developments. 

INSIGHT
8 JULY 2021

Bevan Graham and
Sonya Fynmore

Bevan Graham and Sonya Fynmore discuss the increasingly urgent need for action on climate change and the important role fund managers have to play in supporting the necessary transitions to a more sustainable future.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

7 May 2021

Global growth revised up, risks evenly balanced

The global growth outlook continues to improve as COVID vaccines roll out and economies continue to return to some degree of normal. There are risks on the horizon but in the near-term they appear evenly balanced.  The more medium-term risk centers on the inflation outlook and the extent to which higher inflation in the next few months is transitory, as central banks expect, or something more fundamental.  We are keeping an open mind.  For now, the "bull" narrative for equities remains intact, though we remain wary of further increase in bond yields.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

21 February 2021

Aspiring to a better normal

The COVID pandemic is an event that has taken a considerable human, social and economic toll around the world.  The economic and social scars will likely persist for many years.