Energy

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
October 2024

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

• - Interest rate cuts are underway, but caution is required
  - More room to frontload cuts in New Zealand
  - China gets aggressive on monetary policy, but fiscal stimulus is needed
  - US election a close-run thing
  - Lower interest rates, and strong US growth have generated robust returns - International share markets now face some year-end challenges and risks - NZ assets should navigate out of the doldrums if the RBNZ is agile enough

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
April 2024

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

• Global growth continues to show surprising resilience

• Good progress continues to be made in returning inflation to target, especially at the headline level

• Core inflation is proving harder to contain as the last mile to 2% is proving hardest, and the road is bumpy

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
October 2023

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

Global GDP growth has passed its peak as the post-pandemic surge of inflation along with the subsequent rise in interest rates weighs on economic activity. 

STRUCTURAL THEMES
June 2023

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

Two years ago, as we were starting the process of building out Salt’s global and diversified product range, we began by giving ourselves time to think about the world into which we were launching these products.  We wanted to know not only what opportunities lay ahead, but also what challenges would need to be navigated. 

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2023

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

• The bear markets in global equities and bonds petered out as 2022 ended.

• While damage to equity prices lasted all year, it was quite limited by historical standards.

• Now as markets tentatively recover, active security selection is vital, as risks remain.

• We see much better entry prices for Fixed Income and Property, continuing our focus on  quality portfolio yield.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
JULY 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

There has been no respite in the challenges confronting the global economy; supply chain disruptions remain intense, geopolitical tensions are rising, headline inflation continues to make new highs, and interest rate increases are accelerating.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

A constructive view on 2022 is built on the assumption of progressively fewer and less-paralyzing Covid disruptions to activity, allowing the global economy to continue to expand, supply congestions to ease, and for a more balanced growth environment to evolve. Over time, this should eventually dilute the inflation problem that is now challenging consumers and assets alike.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
12 JULY 2021

Salt's latest views on the global economy, global markets and the New Zealand equity market from Bevan Graham, Greg Fleming and Matt Goodson

After a tumultuous 18-months, deployment of the various vaccines around the world is allowing Covid-related social and economic restrictions to be gradually eased.  Global growth is picking up pace, aided by aggressive monetary and fiscal support.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
21 February 2021

Aspiring to a better normal

The COVID pandemic is an event that has taken a considerable human, social and economic toll around the world.  The economic and social scars will likely persist for many years.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
July 2024

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

• Markets appear remarkably sanguine about the prospects of a second Trump presidency

• Monetary policy divergence matters, but economic convergence will help

• Strong global equity returns in First Half Year, with an IT focus

• Gentle declines in bond yields to support the lagging assets

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
January 2024

Bevan Graham, Paul Turnbull and Greg Fleming

• Global inflation has peaked, but the last mile to target will be the most arduous.

• It will take a still considerable period of below-trend growth to get inflation back to target.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
June 2023

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

Growth resilience, core inflation persistence and ongoing monetary policy tightening have characterised the first half of 2023.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
April 2023

Bevan Graham, Paul Turnbull and Greg Fleming

• Despite an array of challenges, markets are becoming more comfortable with the future path of interest rates

• Near-term, this has allowed positive returns and some rebuilding from last year's widespread valuation declines

• Looking further out, investors will need to see more evidence that businesses are absorbing inflation pressures

• We see more scope for quality and reasonably priced defensive equity performance, as economies slow, and bonds stabilize

• As we anticipated, credit and default risks are becoming relevant as higher interest rates bite

• Diversification principles increasingly require greater portfolio agility, as bonds and shares are still moving together

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

Headline inflation may have peaked in many countries around the world, but the battle is far from won.  Core inflation is proving to be stubborn as second and subsequent rounds of price increases continue to flow through respective economies, while labour markets remain generally tight.  

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
APRIL 2022

Bevan Graham, Matthew Goodson and Greg Fleming

The April edition of Salt’s Global Outlook reinforces our 2022 view of lower growth, higher inflation and more aggressive action from central banks.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinforced those trends.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2021

Bevan Graham and Greg Fleming

Global growth slowing, but above trend.
Economic growth continues to recover strongly, aided by the deployment of vaccines, the accompanying easing of social and economic restrictions, and strong and ongoing policy support.
 

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
7 May 2021

Global growth revised up, risks evenly balanced

The global growth outlook continues to improve as COVID vaccines roll out and economies continue to return to some degree of normal. There are risks on the horizon but in the near-term they appear evenly balanced.  The more medium-term risk centers on the inflation outlook and the extent to which higher inflation in the next few months is transitory, as central banks expect, or something more fundamental.  We are keeping an open mind.  For now, the "bull" narrative for equities remains intact, though we remain wary of further increase in bond yields.